Real-world value of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C at Kaiser Permanente Southern California.

OBJECTIVES: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) lead to cure in more than 95% of recipients; however, payers may limit access to these lifesaving drugs due to high initial cost. Here, the cost-effectiveness of treating HCV with DAAs vs no treatment over a lifetime horizon is evaluated from the perspective of Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC). STUDY DESIGN: A hybrid decision-tree Markov model. METHODS: The model simulated the health and economic outcomes for a real cohort of patients with HCV treated with either ledipasvir-sofosbuvir or sofosbuvir-velpatasvir between November 1, 2014, and October 31, 2019, at KPSC. Patients entered the model at different stages of liver disease and received either active treatment with DAAs or no treatment. Patients who did not achieve sustained virological response experienced disease progression; those who achieved sustained virological response experienced either significantly slower or no disease progression depending on the stage of fibrosis at model start. Demographics, treatment experience, genotype, baseline fibrosis stage, treatment rates, and treatment efficacy were sourced from KPSC real-world data. Costs and utilities were sourced from published literature. RESULTS: A total of 7255 patients with a mean age of 59 years were treated during the study period. Over a lifetime horizon, DAAs resulted in significant reduction in advanced liver disease events and a total cost savings of $1 billion compared with no treatment based on a hybrid decision-tree Markov state-transition model. Cost savings were achieved after only 3 years. DAA intervention dominated no treatment on a per-patient and cohort basis. CONCLUSIONS: DAA treatment at KPSC is predicted to significantly reduce HCV-related morbidity and mortality, providing an anticipated return on investment in drug costs after 3 years of treatment.

The Natural History of NAFLD, a Community-Based Study at a Large Health Care Delivery System in the United States.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a global public health problem. However, the natural history of NAFLD is incomplete. This is a retrospective cohort study of patients identified with NAFLD by diagnosis codes in a large, community-based health care delivery system. The objectives were (1) to follow patients from initial NAFLD presentation through progression to cirrhosis and/or decompensated cirrhosis to liver cancer, liver transplant, and death for up to 10 years; and (2) to conduct disease progression analysis restricted to patients with NAFLD identified as having diabetes at baseline. A total of 98,164 patients with full NAFLD and 26,488 with diabetes were divided into three baseline prevalent states: (1) no cirrhosis, (2) compensated cirrhosis, and (3) decompensated cirrhosis. In baseline patients without cirrhosis, annual rates of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, and death were 0.28%, 0.31%, and 0.63% per year, respectively. With baseline compensated cirrhosis, the annual rates of decompensation and death were 2.4% and 6.7% per year. Finally, in those with decompensated cirrhosis at baseline, the death rate was 8.0% per year. In those without cirrhosis and with cirrhosis at baseline, the rates of liver cancer and death were increased approximately 2-fold in the diabetic subpopulation compared with the full NAFLD cohort. Age and comorbidities increased with increasing disease severity. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that cirrhosis was strongly associated with death and liver cancer, and that diabetes was associated with a significant increase in the hazard of both liver cancer and death (2.56 [2.04-3.20] and 1.43 [1.35-1.52]), respectively. Conclusion: The findings of this community-based study further our understanding of the natural history of NAFLD and demonstrate that diabetes is a major factor in the progression of this disease.

Increased cancer rates in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

AIMS: As previous reports show an association of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and non-liver cancers, we examine the association of HCV with liver cancer and non-liver cancers. METHODS: Retrospective cross-sectional study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) evaluating HCV and non-HCV patients from 1 January 2008 to 12 December 2012. Cancer diagnoses were obtained from the KPSC-SEER-affiliated registry. Logistic regression analyses were used for rate ratios and time-to-event analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, gender, race, smoking and cirrhosis. Cancer rate ratios were stratified by tobacco, alcohol abuse, diabetes and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: The initial population and final population of multivariable analysis were N = 5 332 903 and N = 2 080 335 respectively. Cancer burden (all sites) was significantly higher in HCV than in non-HCV patients and HCV patients had a high rate of liver cancer. When liver cancer was excluded, cancer rates remained significantly increased in HCV. Unadjusted cancer rates were significantly higher in HCV compared to non-HCV for oesophageal, stomach, colorectal, pancreas, myeloma, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, head/neck, lung, renal and prostate cancer. After stratification for alcohol abuse, tobacco, diabetes and BMI, increased cancer rates remained significant for all cancer sites, liver cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Multivariable analyses demonstrated a strong correlation between cirrhosis and cancer. Tobacco use and diabetes were also associated with cancer. In the absence of cirrhosis, HCV, tobacco use and diabetes significantly increased the cancer risk. Mediation analyses showed that cirrhosis was responsible for a large proportion on the effect of HCV on cancer risk. CONCLUSION: This study supports the concept of HCV as a systemic illness and treating HCV regardless of disease severity and prior to progression to cirrhosis.